The Science

The Science

TL;DR: “2030 or Bust” outlines a strategy to close a 19 gigaton emissions gap by 2030, critical for keeping global warming within 2°C. It focuses on engaging individuals and small groups to reduce their carbon footprint through a simple, gamified approach. The plan involves starting with high-emissions/high-income demographics, shifting perceptions about climate change, forming strategic partnerships, and leveraging local actions. Developed with expert collaboration, the goal is to mobilize 500 million participants globally for a collective reduction in emissions. aligning with increasing public concern and awareness about climate change. 

The Problem: The 19 Gigaton Gap: A summary of our document 

on the science behind our methodology

The document begins by highlighting the urgency of reducing global annual emissions by 10 gigatons (Gt) by 2030 to limit global warming to 2°C, as outlined by the UNEP Emissions Gap Report. It identifies a significant gap left by national agreements and pledges from the Paris Agreement, particularly the lack of a framework for individual and small group/business actions in reducing emissions. 

Why 2030?

The document emphasizes the critical timeframe, explaining that by 2030, our opportunity 

to significantly impact climate change will diminish due to the limited carbon budget 

Rationale and Methodology.

2040 or Bust’s mission is mobilizing humanity to end the climate crisis. 

The approach focuses on simplifying and gamifying the process, making it easy and engaging for 

individuals to participate in reducing their carbon footprint. 

Phased Approach to Research & Development

The Strategy includes a phased user engagement, starting with data used on 

US national averages and later incorporating more localized data like zip codes 

and specific global regions. 

Vetting the Approach

The methodology and structure were developed in collaboration with experts like Joep Meijer 

and Prof. Dr. Niklas Hohne and reviewed by Laura Segafredo.

Aggregating Participation to Total Carbon Saved

The strategy outlines the need for a significant number of global participants to reduce their carbon emissions, 

aiming for a collective reduction of 19Gt.

Market Indicators

Market research indicates a growing awareness and concern about climate change across 

various demographics, presenting a ripe opportunity for the initiative. 

In essence, the document lays out a comprehensive, phased, and strategically informed plan

for 2030 or Bust to mobilize global participation in significantly reducing carbon emissions, thereby 

addressing the climate crisis.